Innovations go through similar pathways on the way to full adoption by a community or society, or the world at large. What starts off as research and experimenting starts to gain a small foothold in the mainstream, then suddenly it’s everywhere. There is rapid and haphazard expansion with a lot of hype, but also a lot of hope and exciting advances. Finally we reach the stage where we can’t imagine life or business without it and it becomes expected.
The internet followed a path that is similar to what AI is following currently. Although the path for AI has been much longer, and varied prior to getting any kind of foothold in the mainstream, and then a few more years went by until it hit us all so hard we’ve gone through stages of burnout and overwhelm in the past two years.
Rapid expansion is exciting, but also exhausting. It’s been exciting to be along for the ride – both for the internet and now for AI.
Here are the basic stages these two innovations have gone through. Leave a comment at the end, and let us know where you think AI is on this path today.
Ideation and Precursor
The foundational scientific research and necessary components are developed, though the specific breakthrough is not yet realized.
The World Wide Web (first ISP) and Archie, the first search engine created between 1989 and 1991.
AI – foundational research. 1950-1980’a – early rule-based systems and research into making those rules internal to the program or machine.
Invention and Introduction
The core invention is created and released to the public, often at great cost and with limited functionality.
Early days of the internet, used primarily by universities.
AI – machine learning and expert systems – capable of solving domain-specific problems.
Growth and Expansion
The technology is rapidly adopted by early enthusiasts, functionality improves, and competition emerges. Infrastructure and complementary products grow alongside it.
Internet – 1990’s and early 2000’s – dot-com bubble. Websites, eCommerce, and broadband.
AI – everything is “AI” – there are multiple thousands of businesses creating and using various forms of AI, specifically generative AI based on foundational LLM models.
There is “hype” as products are created rapidly and promise a future state they are not currently able to function at, but will be soon. Some are actually able to achieve it and become the front-runners.
Adjacent and supportive technologies grow and expand rapidly to fill gaps and enhance the new innovation. – Web Developers, Freelancers, eCommerce bookkeeping software. – AI – energy sources of all kinds, cooling technologies, computer processors etc.
Maturity and Optimization
The technology becomes established in the market and undergoes incremental improvements. The focus shifts to efficiency and user experience.
Technology and businesses are acquired and improved upon. The lesser “hype” versions fade to the background and there is less noise. The true functional usefulness emerges especially for businesses and government.
A sense for the true landscape and the future emerges.
Invisible Utility
The technology is so ingrained in our daily lives or businesses that we can’t imagine it not being there. We would never ask a company now, do you have a website or are you online. Wide and invisible adoption as an expectation.
What do you think is next for AI? Where will this take us in our personal lives? How about in our business lives?
What we think we know now versus what reality will be will be interesting to watch.
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